Irish Oaks 2025 Preview: Runner-by-Runner Guide + Historical Trends

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The Juddmonte Irish Oaks (Group 1) at the Curragh is one of the most prestigious middle-distance races for three-year-old fillies. As we approach the 2025 renewal over 1m4f on Good ground, it’s worth taking a close look at the recent winners to identify tactical and pedigree patterns that may point us toward this year’s contenders.

Let’s break it all down 🧠⬇️

Table of Contents

📚 What Do Past Winners Tell Us?

A quick look at the past decade shows us key trends among Irish Oaks winners:

Trainer Dominance: Aidan O’Brien has trained 8 winners since 2006, including Snowfall (2021), Savethelastdance (2023), and Seventh Heaven (2016).
Top Pedigrees: Galileo has featured either as sire or grandsire in most recent winners, while Nathaniel, Deep Impact, and Sea The Stars have also sired champions.
Winning Form: The majority had already won or placed at Group 1 or 2 level before triumphing here.
Late Season Peakers: Many fillies improved through the summer, showing their best in July over 1m4f.

Armed with these insights, let’s assess the 2025 field 🧐👇

🐴 Runner-by-Runner Analysis – Irish Oaks 2025

1️⃣ Bay Colony

Trainer: J A Stack | OR: 85 | RPR: 94
📉 Verdict: Unlikely to feature. Although she’s a winner, her figures fall short of the required standard for a Group 1. No standout pedigree or trainer trend to support her.

2️⃣ Bedtime Story

Trainer: A P O’Brien | OR: 111 | RPR: 127
📈 Verdict: A classic Ballydoyle contender. Daughter of Frankel, runner-up in the Ribblesdale, and boasting an RPR of 127. The type of filly O’Brien typically sharpens for this. Her profile resembles Savethelastdance (2023) — second in a G2 before stepping up.

3️⃣ Butterfly Wings

Trainer: A P O’Brien | OR: 83 | RPR: 104
⚠️ Verdict: Likely a supporting act. No real progression, and recent runs have been underwhelming. May play a tactical role rather than a winning one.

4️⃣ Island Hopping

Trainer: A P O’Brien | OR: 96 | RPR: 108
🔍 Verdict: Consistent but below elite level. Her profile feels closer to horses like Even So or Bracelet — but without the turn of foot. Others preferred.

5️⃣ Merrily

Trainer: A P O’Brien | OR: 99 | RPR: 117
🧩 Verdict: Tricky one. Earlier promise but has gone off the boil in 2025. Still, a peak RPR of 117 suggests she has the engine if she can bounce back. Her profile isn’t far from Even So (2020), who also rebounded at a price.

6️⃣ Minnie Hauk

Trainer: A P O’Brien | OR: 117 | RPR: 131
🌟 Verdict: The most exciting Ballydoyle prospect. Unbeaten in 2025, winner of a Group 3, and tied for top RPR. Her trajectory mirrors Snowfall (2021) — dominant mid-summer surge and tactical strength. Top pick.

7️⃣ Subsonic

Trainer: J P Murtagh | OR: 100 | RPR: 95
🚫 Verdict: Connections are respected, but she was disappointing last time and lacks group form. Would be a major surprise. One for the notebook, not the betting slip.

8️⃣ Wemightakedlongway

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien | OR: 111 | RPR: 123
💥 Verdict: Improving rapidly. Solid fourth in the Ribblesdale behind Bedtime Story. Similar progression to Sea Of Class (2018), who finished fast to place before her breakthrough. Definite value for place bettors.

9️⃣ Whirl

Trainer: A P O’Brien | OR: 117 | RPR: 131
🔥 Verdict: Winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes (G1) — something few Irish Oaks contenders achieve before this race. Her RPR and TS are elite. Could emulate Peeping Fawn (2007), who came alive at this point in the season. Serious threat.

⭐ Irish Oaks 2025 – Power Rankings (by RPR)

🐎 Horse	📊 RPR
Minnie Hauk	131
Whirl	131
Bedtime Story	127
Wemightakedlongway	123
Merrily	117

📌 Final Thoughts: What the Trends Say

✅ Aidan O’Brien saddles 6 of the 9 runners — history suggests one of them will win.
🔝 Top RPR scores are shared by Whirl and Minnie Hauk — both fit the profile of past elite winners.
💡 Value pick: Wemightakedlongway could follow in the footsteps of fillies like Sea Of Class — improving into this race and hitting the frame at a price.

If you’re looking to strengthen your betting strategy for this year’s Irish Oaks — or any major flat race — don’t miss our 👇
🔗 10 Flat Racing Betting Trends You Need to Know in 2025 – a data-driven guide to what’s working on the turf this season.
And for a deeper look at how I personally assess each race tactically and statistically, check out 🔎
🔗 How I Break Down a Race – my full framework for analysing flat racing from a punter’s perspective.