Every year when the clocks change, I feel the same thing. The air turns colder, the mornings bite a little harder, and suddenly the rhythm of the jumps season feels alive again. The chatter in the yards changes; the quiet confidence, the smell of wet leather, the ground softening under hooves — this is when the season really begins.
And every November, I find myself drawn to one question above all: which are the trainers to follow in November? Some wait for Christmas, others like to ease their horses in. But a handful of yards hit form straight away, and if you can spot them early, there’s value to be found long before Cheltenham starts to dominate the conversation.
I learned the hard way that November can make or break a betting season. Years ago, I’d dive into the first big meetings full of enthusiasm, only to realise some horses weren’t anywhere near ready. It took me a couple of painful months to understand that it wasn’t the horses I was reading wrong — it was the trainers. Since then, November has become my testing ground. I spend the mornings checking the “Trainers in Form” lists, comparing entries, and watching how quickly a stable finds rhythm.
There’s something fascinating about this phase of the season. Everyone talks about Cheltenham, but the sharpest punters I know start shaping their opinions now. Patterns appear early — a yard that can string two or three winners together in the first fortnight usually means business all winter.
I’ve spent the last few seasons tracking those “fast starters”. The data from Geegeez and BetTurtle confirms what experience already suggests: a few trainers simply know how to get their strings sharp for November.
Why following the right trainers in november matters
November isn’t just the start of winter racing — it’s the start of rhythm. Horses that have had a prep run in October or that come from a yard that drills them fit can suddenly look a class above rivals still rubbing the summer dust from their coats.
You’ll often see it in mid-range handicaps: the horses from “hot yards” travel stronger, jump cleaner and look fitter from the moment the tapes go up. That’s why identifying the trainers to follow in November can be one of the smartest moves a punter can make. Trainers who plan for this window — not waiting for Christmas, not chasing Cheltenham glory yet — can build serious momentum.
A few patterns always repeat:
- Soft ground suits certain yards more than others.
- The ones who target early fixtures like Wincanton, Wetherby or Down Royal tend to build confidence quickly.
- A “hot” yard in November often keeps firing well into December before the real deep ground arrives.
You don’t have to look far for proof. Last November, Protektorat came out flying for Dan Skelton, winning the Paddy Power Chase at Cheltenham like he owned the place. The horse was fit, bold and sharp, and that’s exactly how Skelton’s yard looked across the board that month. A few weeks later, Royal Pagaille did the same for Venetia Williams in the Betfair Chase at Haydock — heavy ground, deep winter feel, perfect timing.
On the other hand, you could spot yards that were still warming up. Big names sent out horses who travelled well for a mile and then folded like umbrellas after the last. That’s what November teaches you if you’re watching closely — not who’s got the best horses, but who’s got them ready.
Even smaller operations can strike early. Lucinda Russell had a brilliant start last year with a string of tough, forward horses that simply out-galloped unfit rivals in Scotland. And across the Irish Sea, Gordon Elliott used the Down Royal meeting as his launch pad, bagging half the card before most yards had even rolled out their winter runners.
The pattern repeats itself almost every season: the ones that mean business in November usually stay ahead of the curve until Christmas.ones that mean business in November usually stay ahead of the curve until Christmas.
For a wider look at the top trainers to follow in the 2025–2026 National Hunt season, including stats, key horses and yard trends, check out this in-depth guide. It expands on how early-season sharpness often shapes the entire campaign.
The usual early-season trainers to follow
These are the yards I keep an eye on every year — and the data backs them up. Some names are familiar, but that’s because they’ve mastered the art of starting fast. When you look at the strike rates and winners recorded year after year, it’s clear which stables plan for November rather than simply stumble into it.
Following the trainers to follow in November isn’t about guessing trends — it’s about recognising habits. The same faces tend to appear near the top of the leaderboard every autumn, and they don’t get there by accident. Their systems, gallops, and fitness routines are tuned for this exact window.
In the next sections, we’ll look at those who have consistently proven themselves as the true fast starters of the jumps season — the ones whose early intent sets the tone for everything that follows.
Paul Nicholls
Every November you can almost set your watch by him. Nicholls doesn’t ease into the season — he blasts out of the gate. His Wincanton five-timer last November wasn’t a fluke; it was a statement. His horses are lean, fluent and ready to win straight off their reappearances.
| Trainer | Avg. Nov Strike Rate (’21–’24) | ROI Trend | Notable Tracks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nicholls | ~27 % | Positive overall | Wincanton, Exeter, Newbury |
What makes him dangerous early is intent. The Ditcheat team run with purpose; even the novices look forward. I rarely ignore one of his runners at Wincanton in early November — the market usually shortens them for a reason. For punters looking for trainers to follow in November, Nicholls remains the benchmark.
Dan Skelton
If Nicholls sets the standard, Skelton runs him close. His yard loves the Cheltenham November Meeting — those middle-distance handicaps are tailor-made for fit, bold-jumping types that hit the ground running.
| Trainer | Avg. Nov Strike Rate | Typical Winners | Key Meetings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Skelton | ~25 % | Protektorat, L’Eau du Sud | Cheltenham Nov Meeting, Warwick |
Skelton’s horses arrive race-ready because he trains that way. They tend to peak before Christmas, so his early runners often hold an edge before the big yards warm up. His record makes him one of the most reliable trainers to follow in November, especially at Cheltenham where his string rarely disappoints when the ground is good to soft.
Fergal O’Brien
Quietly consistent, O’Brien has become a November banker for punters who follow yard form closely. His team usually have a few runs under their belts by the time the leaves start to fall, and that sharpness tells every year.
| Trainer | Strike Rate | ROI Trend | Reliable Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fergal O’Brien | ~23 % | Stable | Paddy Brennan |
His handicappers at places like Huntingdon and Ludlow often slip under the radar, and his novice hurdlers seem to thrive on good-to-soft autumn ground. If you’re studying trainers to follow in November, O’Brien’s name deserves to be near the top of your list — his runners rarely lack for fitness or intent during this part of the season.
Venetia Williams
When the rain comes, Venetia wakes up. It’s almost seasonal instinct — the first truly soft weekend of November and her name appears everywhere. Her yard thrives when the going turns testing, and few trainers prepare their horses better for those deep-ground battles that define the start of winter.
| Trainer | Avg. Nov Strike Rate | Typical Conditions | Flagship Horses |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venetia Williams | ~24 % | Soft/Heavy ground | Royal Pagaille, Frero Banbou |
Her success in the Betfair Chase with Royal Pagaille in both 2023 and 2024 summed it up perfectly: when others are still guessing about fitness, her chasers are already tuned to slog through the mud. For punters tracking trainers to follow in November, she’s the classic example of how weather and preparation can come together at just the right time.
Nicky Henderson
If Paul Nicholls is the model of early intent, then Nicky Henderson is the master of precision. He doesn’t flood the entries in November, but when he runs one, it usually counts. The Seven Barrows yard works to a meticulous rhythm: schooling starts early, gallops are timed to perfection, and when his horses appear on the racecard, they’re never there for fitness.
| Trainer | Avg. Nov Strike Rate | Typical Profile | Key Horses (’23–’24) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Henderson | ~28 % | Lightly raced, well-placed | Jonbon, Luccia, First Street |
Last November, Jonbon looked electric at Ascot, cruising through his seasonal return and setting the tone for the stable. Henderson’s runners are often spotted in small fields, short prices and with clear targets — he’s not chasing numbers, he’s chasing readiness.
For punters who study trainers to follow in November, Henderson’s stable offers a clear picture of control and consistency. When his horses are backed late in the ring during this month, they rarely disappoint. That balance between patience and precision makes his early-season runners some of the most reliable indicators of form in the game.
Olly Murphy
One of the newer names on the list, but already a reliable fast starter. Murphy has built a yard that knows how to get horses fit and confident early in the campaign. His partnership with Sean Bowen has become one of the most profitable in early-season handicaps, and their results prove it year after year.
| Trainer | Jockey | Avg. Nov Wins | Strike Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olly Murphy | Sean Bowen | 30 | ~22 % |
They combine strong schooling with selective placement — Aintree, Uttoxeter, Huntingdon — where his runners often out-jump and outstay the field. For bettors tracking trainers to follow in November, Murphy represents the new generation of sharp operators who maximise this early-season window before others hit top gear.
Lucinda Russell
Up north, Russell’s yard often clicks as soon as the clocks change. Her horses come fit from their Perth and Hexham spins, and she rarely misses with short-priced chasers in Scotland. The stable is known for toughness and rhythm — traits that tend to shine when others are still finding fitness.
| Trainer | Avg. Nov Strike Rate | Best Tracks | Notable Horse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucinda Russell | ~21 % | Ayr, Hexham, Perth | Ahoy Senor |
She doesn’t flood the entries, but when her name appears early in the card, it usually matters. For punters analysing trainers to follow in November, Russell offers consistent value: her horses are forward, her placement is sharp, and her record north of the border keeps improving year after year.
If you enjoy tracking how these yards progress through the winter, you can explore my full collection of horses to follow by trainer. It’s regularly updated with profiles, race notes, and early-season standouts that could deliver real value in the coming weeks.
Trainer–jockey partnerships to watch
Some combinations simply thrive in this window. The chemistry, the planning, the fitness — it all aligns. It’s no coincidence that the trainers to follow in November often share a strong, long-term understanding with their stable jockeys. These partnerships build rhythm early and spread confidence across the whole yard.
| Trainer | Jockey | Avg. Nov Wins (21–24) | Strike Rate | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nicholls | Harry Cobden | 70 | 30 %+ | A partnership that sets the tone for winter |
| Olly Murphy | Sean Bowen | 30 | ~22 % | Consistently profitable early on |
| Nicky Henderson | Nico de Boinville | 47 | ~31 % | Peak when ground is still good-to-soft |
| Fergal O’Brien | Paddy Brennan | 21 | ~35 % | Quietly one of the most efficient combos |
Watching the markets, you can almost feel when a team is “hot”. Back-to-back winners from a pair like Murphy–Bowen can spark confidence through the entire yard — horses travel better, jump cleaner, and run as if momentum itself were carrying them forward.
How I use this information when betting
For me, spotting trainers to follow in November isn’t about backing names blindly — it’s about context. I’ve learned to look at who’s targeting the right races rather than who’s simply running the biggest string. When I see a Nicholls runner in a novice chase at Wincanton, I ask myself: Is this part of his early-season push?
If a Venetia Williams chaser lines up the week the heavens open, I don’t hesitate — that’s her ground, her moment. And when the O’Brien–Brennan duo pop up in a midweek handicap at Ludlow, I’ll often have a nibble each way because their horses are simply fitter than most.
Timing is everything. By mid-December, the markets have caught up, strike rates level out, and those early-season edges fade. November is the window — that short stretch where preparation counts more than hype, and where you can still get prices that reflect uncertainty rather than reputation.
For punters, understanding which trainers are firing early is as close as it gets to an advantage. When a yard is in rhythm, confidence spreads: staff ride with belief, jockeys take bold decisions, and horses run above their marks. You can feel it before you even see it in the results.
Course specialists in November
Certain yards dominate specific meetings, and recognising these patterns is one of the biggest clues when choosing which trainers to follow in November. Success at certain tracks is rarely coincidence — it’s preparation, placement and habit.
| Course | Trainer | Wins (21–24) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wincanton | Paul Nicholls | 15 | Local edge; targets this meeting heavily |
| Cheltenham (Nov Meeting) | Dan Skelton | 9 | Loves this weekend; horses peak early |
| Haydock | Venetia Williams | 6 | Heavy ground suits her chasers |
| Down Royal | Gordon Elliott | 10 | Uses early Irish festival to launch big guns |
These figures tell their own story. Nicholls turns Wincanton into his private playground every November — local knowledge, early targets, and horses tuned to perfection. Skelton thrives at Cheltenham’s November Meeting, where his fit, bold-jumping types often outclass sluggish rivals.
Further north, Venetia Williams treats Haydock’s wet, deep ground like home turf, and across the Irish Sea, Gordon Elliott almost owns Down Royal. His ability to send out multiple early winners there each year has become part of his yard’s identity.
Knowing where a yard tends to strike early gives punters a subtle but real advantage. When you match trainer form with course history, you stop guessing and start anticipating.
What to watch for this November
This November already feels full of intrigue. The ground has softened early, entries are coming thick and fast, and a few yards have shown their hands sooner than usual. It’s the perfect time to reassess which trainers to follow in November before the markets fully adjust.
I’ve been watching the midweek cards as closely as the weekends — those quiet fixtures often reveal more than any Saturday headline. Paul Nicholls looks set for another explosive start, with several young chasers stepping into handicaps off workable marks. His team at Ditcheat always hit stride early, and this year seems no different.
Olly Murphy’s hurdlers have caught the eye too — confident in their jumping and clearly ahead of schedule. In the north, Lucinda Russell’s yard has already shown spark at Ayr, suggesting another strong early run is coming.
The trick for punters is not to chase prices but to recognise momentum. When a trainer lands two or three winners in quick succession, confidence spreads like wildfire. Horses start running above their marks, jockeys trust their instincts, and the results follow naturally.
I’ve learned that November rewards quiet observation more than bold prediction. While everyone else waits for the “big names” to peak later in the winter, there’s money — and genuine enjoyment — to be found in spotting those first stable sparks of the season.
Final thoughts
Every punter has their own rhythm, and November is mine. It’s the month where reading trainer intent makes the difference between spotting value and chasing shadows. Knowing which trainers to follow in November gives you an early-season edge — a way to read the form before the markets do.
Some years, it’s Paul Nicholls who sets the tone; others, Venetia Williams who turns wet weekends into gold. But the rule never changes: the story of the early season is always written by the trainers who mean business before everyone else has even looked up from the schooling field.
As the mornings darken and the mud thickens, focus on the yards that fire first. They’re not just starting their campaigns — they’re shaping ours. And if you follow them early, the season might just start smiling back at you.
If you’d like to see which of these early-season clues I’m actually backing, head over to Today’s Selection. That’s where I post my daily picks — short, sharp, and based on the same trainer trends we’ve explored here.
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