Every winter I see the same thing: as soon as December arrives, the ground turns soft, the cold bites, and the in-form trainers in December start to separate themselves from the rest. Some yards simply handle the winter months better than others, and because I never like relying on gut feeling alone, I’ve gone back through the results from the last three Decembers (2022, 2023 and 2024) to see who is genuinely performing when conditions get tough.
The results didn’t exactly shock me, but they did confirm a few long-held suspicions. A handful of trainers are absolute gold at this time of year. Some of the biggest names in the sport, surprisingly, don’t offer much value in December. And then there are the yards that quietly deliver excellent returns despite getting far less attention.
What follows is my personal breakdown of the December data: what the numbers actually say, how I interpret them as a punter, and which trainers I believe are truly worth following when winter jumps racing is at its toughest.
December Trainer Stats: Key Numbers at a Glance
Here’s a quick look at the key December trainer stats from the last three seasons. This is the data that underpins the entire analysis: no assumptions, no theories—just the actual numbers behind who really performs in winter.
For broader context on winter performance trends, you can also explore the seasonal analysis published by this independent jumps racing source.
December 2022–2024 Combined (Trainers with 30+ Wins)
| Trainer | Bets | Wins | Win% | Profit/Loss SP | ROI SP | Profit/Loss BF | ROI BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Mullins | 426 | 23 | 5.4% | –136.93 | –32.12% | –94.75 | –21.93% |
| G. Elliott | 507 | 30 | 5.9% | –145.24 | –28.65% | –54.44 | –10.74% |
| D. Skelton | 226 | 34 | 15.0% | +3.40 | +1.50% | +32.69 | +14.46% |
| P. Nicholls | 150 | 28 | 18.7% | –2.77 | –1.85% | +2.25 | +1.50% |
| N. Henderson | 86 | 14 | 16.3% | –17.39 | –20.22% | –3.65 | –4.25% |
| O. Murphy | 135 | 18 | 13.3% | –23.48 | –17.40% | –4.23 | –3.14% |
| V. Williams | 186 | 38 | 20.4% | +14.73 | +7.92% | +12.55 | +6.75% |
| G. & J. Moore | 354 | 32 | 9.0% | –60.71 | –17.15% | –24.81 | –7.01% |
| J. P. O’Brien | 85 | 17 | 20.0% | +23.88 | +28.09% | +28.20 | +33.18% |
| J. O’Neill | 144 | 15 | 10.4% | –13.90 | –9.65% | –14.01 | –9.73% |
| F. O’Brien | 350 | 32 | 9.1% | –36.11 | –10.31% | +11.04 | +3.15% |
| H. de Bromhead | 147 | 10 | 6.8% | –61.76 | –42.02% | –16.52 | –11.29% |
Now let’s break down what these numbers actually tell us—and how I interpret each yard’s December form.
December trainer form: individual performance analysis
Before going through each trainer, this section breaks down the individual December form of every yard in the dataset. These profiles show not only who wins, but who offers real value during the winter months.
Willie Mullins: december form and why he offers little value
Willie Mullins may dominate headlines all year round, but his December trainer form tells a very different story when you look at the numbers closely.
I’ll be honest: I didn’t expect Willie Mullins to top the table in terms of sheer number of bets, but I did expect him to sit near the bottom in terms of value. That’s exactly what the numbers show.
What the data says
- 426 runners in three Decembers is an enormous volume.
- Only 23 winners (5.4%), which is well below what punters would intuitively expect.
- ROI is heavily negative both at SP (–32%) and Betfair (–22%).
My view
Mullins is Mullins. He’s going to win big races, he’s going to field strong horses, and he’s going to attract money. But December is not the time to chase him blindly.
Low odds + huge volume = punters are paying too much for his reputation.
Unless I’m backing one of his genuine hot prospects in a graded contest, Mullins is a yard I tend to avoid for value in December.
Gordon Elliott: december record with reliable strike rate but weak value
His December trainer form shows the same pattern every winter: plenty of runners, consistent efforts, but very little value for punters.
Elliott’s numbers are extremely similar to Mullins in one key way: lots of runners, modest win percentages, negative ROI.
What the data says
- Over 500 runners in three Decembers.
- Only 5.9% win rate.
- ROI: –28% at SP, –10% on Betfair.
My view
He’s one of the most consistently competitive trainers, but the market seems to know everything before we do.
I don’t mind backing Gordon Elliott in bigger-field handicaps where there’s each-way potential, but as a straight-win proposition in winter?
I’m not convinced December is the right time to side with him regularly.
Dan Skelton: December form that consistently delivers value
His December trainer form is one of the strongest in the dataset, combining intent, fitness and excellent placement to produce genuine betting value.
This is where things get interesting. Dan Skelton stands out dramatically from the two dominant Irish yards.
What the data says
- 15% win rate, double Mullins/Elliott.
- Profitable at both SP (+1.5%) and Betfair (+14.5%).
- 34 winners from 226 runners, which is an impressive return.
My view
You can feel the intent from this yard in early winter. Skelton targets his horses well, especially in handicaps, and they arrive fit.
December is clearly a sweet spot for him, and I genuinely enjoy backing his runners at this time of year—especially when Harry is on board.
If I had to choose just three trainers to follow blindly in December, Skelton would be in the top two.
Paul Nicholls: December form that proves reliable but hard to profit from
His December trainer form is consistently strong, but the market tends to price his runners so tightly that long-term profit becomes difficult.
Nicholls is similar to Skelton in strike rate but doesn’t quite produce the same value.
What the data says
- 18.7% win rate, one of the highest on the list.
- Roughly break-even ROI: –1.85% SP, +1.50% BF.
- 28 winners from 150 runners.
My view
Nicholls is reliable, but the prices are tight.
His December horses tend to be clean jumpers and strong travellers, especially in novice chases.
For me, Paul Nicholls sits in the middle: not a yard I avoid, not a yard I back blindly.
He’s just… fairly priced most of the time.
Nicky Henderson: December form that looks solid on paper but lacks real value
His December trainer form shows a respectable strike rate, but once you factor in prices and market expectations, the value simply isn’t there.
I’ve learned over the years that Henderson’s yard typically peaks later in the season. The data confirms that winter is not his absolute prime.
What the data says
- 16.3% win rate (not bad on paper).
- ROI very negative: –20% SP, –4% BF.
- 14 winners from 86 runners.
My view
If Nicky Henderson’s horses win in December, they tend to be short and expected.
For punters, that’s not a great combination.
I’m careful with him at this time of year unless I’m convinced the horse is exceptional.
Olly Murphy: December form with solid results but limited betting value
His December trainer form sits in that middle ground where the strike rate is respectable, but the market rarely offers a price that makes long-term profit realistic.
Murphy is consistent, but the value isn’t quite there.
What the data says
- 18 winners, 13% win rate.
- ROI negative at both SP and BF.
My view
A solid yard with plenty of nice types, but December doesn’t give Olly Murphy’s horses the profile I like to back.
I’d call him a “neutral” December trainer—neither trustworthy nor avoidable, but rarely value.
Venetia Williams: December form that truly earns her the title ‘Queen of Winter’
Her December trainer form is exceptional, combining a high strike rate with genuine betting value in a way that very few big yards can match.
This is the one I knew would show up well. Venetia Williams is winter’s great specialist, and the numbers are absolutely spectacular.
What the data says
- 38 winners from 186 runners.
- 20.4% strike rate, best of the major yards.
- Profit at SP (+7.92%).
- Profit at BF (+6.75%).
My view
This is why punters follow Venetia in winter.
Her horses come alive on soft ground, especially big, powerful staying chasers.
This is the most profitable “big yard” in December, and it matches everything my eyes have told me over the years.
If you only follow ONE trainer in December, it’s Venetia Williams.
Full stop.
Gary & Josh Moore: December form that shows potential but lacks consistency
Their December trainer form highlights the same pattern year after year: plenty of effort and the odd big result, but not enough consistency to offer long-term value.
I’ve always felt the Moores were capable of landing touches, but the data suggests inconsistency.
What the data says
- 354 runners, only 32 winners (9%).
- ROI deeply negative both SP and BF.
My view
They’re a yard whose horses can outrun big prices, particularly at tracks like Plumpton or Lingfield, but as a December system they’re too volatile.
Good at picking off small races—but not the kind of profile that offers steady returns.
Joseph Patrick O’Brien: December form that offers exceptional betting value
His December trainer form stands out sharply from the rest, combining a high strike rate with some of the most generous prices you’ll find in winter jumps racing.
This is one of the biggest surprises from the data.
What the data says
- 20% win rate (almost identical to Venetia).
- ROI: +28% SP and +33% BF — massive.
- 17 winners from 85 runners.
My view
This is incredible value for a yard that doesn’t send tons of runners across the month.
When Joseph sends one that’s fancied, it tends to deliver.
For anyone who likes the Irish-to-UK angle, this is a very strong December profile.
Jonjo O’Neill: December form with modest results and very limited value
His December trainer form shows a clear pattern: the odd solid run appears, but overall the yard struggles to turn effort into meaningful returns for punters.
Jonjo’s horses often improve later in a campaign, but December doesn’t stand out.
What the data says
- 15 winners from 144 runners (10%).
- ROI negative on all metrics.
My view
Handicap chasers might offer some occasional value, but overall I avoid Jonjo in December unless there’s a clear angle.
Fergal O’Brien: December form with steady performances but mixed returns
His December trainer form consistently shows solid efforts across big fields, but the prices rarely allow his runners to turn that competitiveness into reliable profit.
Fergal O’Brien always has a strong early-season profile, but December cools slightly.
What the data says
- 32 winners from 350 runners (9%).
- ROI around break-even at BF (+3%), negative at SP.
My view
He’s incredibly reliable at placing horses early in the season.
December isn’t bad, just not profitable unless you’re getting a good price.
Still a yard I like following each-way in big handicaps.
Henry de Bromhead: December form that highlights clear winter struggles
His December trainer form shows a clear downturn, with low strike rates and prices that rarely justify the risk for punters.
De Bromhead is a world-class trainer, but December is rough for him.
What the data says
- 10 winners from 147 runners (6.8%).
- ROI extremely negative.
My view
His season tends to turn around later, often prepping for spring festivals.
For betting purposes, December is not the moment to side with him.
My personal ranking of December trainer form
Based on their combined December trainer form over the last three seasons, this is how I personally rate each yard in terms of reliability, value, and long-term betting potential.
If I had to rank these trainers based purely on December value, here’s how I’d group them:
Top Tier (Follow with Confidence)
- Venetia Williams
- Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Dan Skelton
Middle Tier (Case-by-Case Basis)
- Paul Nicholls
- Fergal O’Brien
- Olly Murphy
Caution Tier (Avoid unless exceptional case)
- Gordon Elliott
- Willie Mullins
- Nicky Henderson
- Gary & Josh Moore
- Jonjo O’Neill
- Henry de Bromhead
Final thoughts on December trainer form and what it means for punters
Looking back at all the numbers, the pattern in December trainer form is surprisingly consistent and genuinely useful for anyone who bets on winter jumps racing.
For me, December is the month where certain trainers shine because they train for winter, not in spite of it.
Soft ground, deep staying chases, short daylight, horses needing fitness: it all creates a perfect environment for yards that specialise in conditioning tough, battle-ready chasers.
The data backs up what many punters feel instinctively:
- Venetia is deadly.
- Skelton’s placement is top-class.
- Joseph O’Brien offers sneaky value.
- Mullins and Elliott runners are almost always overbet.
- Nicholls is steady, but not exploitable.
December is one of my favourite months to bet in because the patterns are real, and if you respect the numbers rather than the names, there’s opportunity everywhere.
Leave a Reply