The Group 1 Falmouth Stakes (1m, Fillies & Mares, 3yo+) takes centre stage on Day 2 of the July Festival at Newmarket this Friday, July 11. With a mix of classy 3-year-olds and experienced older mares, it’s a race packed with talent and tactical intrigue — especially with the going currently set to Good.
Below, we break down each contender – from leading favourites to dark horses – in our signature style: sharp, informed, and packed with insights for punters 😉
Horse-by-Horse Preview 🍀
Cinderella’s Dream ✨✨✨✨⭐
Appleby’s filly boasts the highest RPR (124) in the field and a strong seasonal profile (12-212). Buick knows how to get the best out of her, and her tactical pace makes her dangerous on fast ground. The one to beat if she repeats her last run. 🚀
January ✨✨✨✨
This daughter of Aidan O’Brien has been steadily progressing and holds a solid OR of 110. Her recent effort at Royal Ascot was better than it looked, and she may improve again over a straight mile. An underrated contender with stamina to spare. 📈
Crimson Advocate ✨✨✨✨
Strong early pace and a bold running style make her a fascinating contender. RPR of 122 confirms she belongs at this level. If the race sets up for front-runners, she’ll be right there. However, she must prove she can see out a true mile. ⚡️
Bedtime Story ✨✨✨✨
A beautifully-bred O’Brien filly with a superb RPR of 120 on her last start. She’s peaking at the right time and may benefit from the 3yo allowance. If she settles early, she could play a major role. 🌟
Running Lion ✨✨✨✨
Plenty of Group-level experience and ran with credit in tougher company. A TS of 102 and RPR of 122 show she’s still competitive. Newmarket suits her, and with Oisin Murphy booked, she looks set for another big run. ⚔️
Elmalka ✨✨✨
Consistent but perhaps lacking the extra gear needed to win at Group 1 level. Varian’s filly has good figures (RPR 117) but may find one or two too strong. Place claims if the leaders overcook the pace. 🚗
Chantilly Lace ✨✨✨
Still learning the game but showed promise in her last two runs. Beckett and Rossa Ryan are a reliable combo, and she has the pedigree to handle this trip. Needs a career best to contend. 🔹
Elwateen ✨✨✨
Saeed bin Suroor’s runner has shown glimpses of class, and Jim Crowley takes over. RPR of 111 suggests there’s a foundation, but this is a big step up in class. May find this too hot. ⛅️
Exactly ✨✨✨
Another Ballydoyle runner with potential. Her RPR of 114 makes her a live place prospect, and she could surprise if the race turns tactical. Not the most consistent, but not easily dismissed. 🕵️♀️
Atsila ✨✨
Still lightly raced and looks outclassed here on paper. RPR of 109 isn’t disgraceful, but she’ll need huge improvement to threaten. Future potential, but perhaps not today. 🌐
Lady Ilze ✨✨
German raider with an interesting profile. Beat a weak field last time and enters here off a break. RPR of 113 is respectable, but she lacks top-level form. Hard to weigh up. 🤔
Pina Sonata ✨
The lowest-rated in the field with an OR of 94 and RPR of 103. Looks out of her depth and would be a major shock if involved. One for another day. ❌
🧠 Verdict 🔮
🥇 Main Pick: Cinderella’s Dream ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Appleby-trained filly sets the standard with an imposing RPR of 124 and a proven turn of foot. With William Buick aboard and a rock-solid seasonal profile, she looks the one to beat on this straight mile. The expected Good ground will play to her strengths, and she’s likely to travel sweetly in a tactical race. Class act.
💥 Value Alternative: Bedtime Story ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Don’t overlook this progressive 3yo from Ballydoyle. Her latest run produced a cracking RPR of 120, and she benefits from the 9-0 weight allowance. If she settles early and gets a decent tow into the race, she could swoop late. The price underestimates her talent — she’s a serious each-way player. 🚀
Before you place your bets on the Falmouth Stakes, make sure to check out our Princess of Wales’s Stakes 2025 Preview for another top-level contest on July 10, and don’t miss our Newmarket July Course betting guide with stats and insights tailored for this unique track. 📊
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