We head to Curragh this Sunday for one of the highlights of the Irish Flat season – Irish Derby Day 2025. With the ground riding Good and competitive action across all distances, it’s a prime opportunity for sharp punters to find value. From the 5f Rockingham sprint to the prestigious Group 1 Irish Derby, every race offers a puzzle worth solving. Based on trends, pace analysis and form insights, here are my top win picks for the day – along with one alternative in each race. Let’s finish June in style! 💥🍀
🇮🇪 1m1f Dubai Duty Free Handicap (3yo) – Curragh (Good Ground)
🔍 Race Insight:
A deep 3yo handicap where several arrive in top form. Pace could be honest, with some likely to challenge early. It could pay to side with a strong finisher who’s improving under the radar.
🎯 Selection: Calrissiana 16/1
🔎 “This filly is sneaky good — lightly raced, improving with each start and staying on well behind two solid types last time. Drawn well, gets weight from the top-rated colts and could swoop late if they go too hard upfront.”
🟡 Alternative: Mississippi River 3/2 – “Obvious class angle with top jockey Ryan Moore, solid and consistent at this level.”
🇮🇪 1m Dubai Duty Free Derby Festival Handicap (3yo+) – Curragh (Good Ground)
🔍 Race Insight:
This is a competitive mile handicap with a mix of reliable handicappers and progressive types. Pace should be strong, and the draw could play a role with some key contenders drawn wide.
🎯 Selection: Love Billy Boy 15/2
🚀 “He’s flying right now – back-to-back wins over similar trips and looks better than his mark. The return to a stiff mile suits, and he’s tactically versatile. Still improving.”
🟡 Alternative: Serialise 12/1 – “Lightly raced filly who’s been knocking on the door. Low weight and a handy draw make her a solid danger.”
🇮🇪 5f Dubai Duty Free Rockingham Handicap (Premier Handicap, 3yo+) – Curragh (Good, stalls centre)
🚀 Sprint Insight:
One of Ireland’s premier 5f handicaps, this race is often won by well-drawn horses with tactical pace. With the stalls in the centre, positioning should be fair, and recent course form will be crucial.
🎯 Selection: Keke 5/2
⚡ “Progressive sprinter who’s been knocking on the door in similar company. Excellent course form, drawn low, and has W J Lee booked. Ready to strike if things fall right.”
🟡 Alternative: Greek Flower 8/1 – “Has run well in top handicaps and may find this slightly easier. Could pounce late with a clean run.”
🇮🇪 1m4f Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1, 3yo) – Curragh (Good)
👑 Classic Showdown:
Ireland’s top Classic for 3-year-olds returns to the Curragh with a strong field led by Epsom Derby hero Lambourn, who seeks to complete a famous double. His Epsom form has already been boosted, and he brings the highest RPR (134) into the race.
🎯 Selection: Lambourn 4/5
🔥 “Brilliant winner at Epsom, well-balanced and tactically versatile. With Ryan Moore back on board and no obvious flaws in the opposition, he looks tough to beat again.”
🟡 Alternative: Tennessee Stud 5/1 – “Stayed on strongly behind Lambourn last time and should appreciate the Curragh’s long straight. Live each-way chance.”
🏨 1m4f Ragusa Handicap (4yo+) – Curragh (Good)
📏 Stamina Test on Fast Ground:
A big field tackles the 1m4f trip on good ground, and many come in with a shout. A tactical pace is likely, and positioning could be key. Recent winners and solid handicappers collide in a fascinating race.
🎯 Selection: Cheeky Wink 15/2
🌟 “She’s unexposed over the trip, looked progressive this season and holds her form well. Ben Coen’s mount can get the ideal stalking trip from stall 14 and finish strongly.”
🟡 Alternative: Cloud Seeker 10/3 – “Consistent and proven at the trip, he remains on a fair mark despite a recent rise.”
🌸 7f GAIN Summer Fillies & Mares Handicap (3yo+) – Curragh (Good)
👗 Competitive Fillies’ Sprint:
A wide-open handicap for the girls, featuring a mix of 3yo improvers and older, more seasoned types. The draw doesn’t seem too crucial over 7f here on good ground, so tactical speed and current form will be key.
🎯 Selection: Orchidaceae 5/1
💥 “Lightly raced 3yo who won nicely over C&D last time and looks well treated under just a 7lb rise. With the age allowance and W J Lee booked again, she could strike again from a good spot.”
🟡 Alternative: Murkala 5/1 – “Consistent type who’s holding her form and may benefit from a pace collapse late on.”
🏁 2m Dubai Duty Free Irish EBF Stayers Handicap (4yo+) – Curragh (Good)
💨 Stamina Test to End the Day:
An ultra-competitive staying handicap over 2 miles with a mix of flat and dual-purpose horses. Pace and proven stamina are key, but so es el momento de forma actual. Con tantos corredores, buscamos valor y perfil táctico adecuado.
🎯 Selection: Too Bossy For Us 4/1
🐎 “Two runs for Willie Mullins, both in Grade 1 hurdles, suggest this gelding has an engine. Back on the Flat and with William Buick up, he could outclass this field off a very workable mark.”
🟡 Alternative: La Vita Nova 10/1 – “Progressive filly with staying potential; looked strong at Navan and could keep improving over this trip.”
💡 Looking ahead? If you’re already planning your weekend punts, don’t miss our in-depth Coral-Eclipse 2025 preview – it’s packed with stats, tactical breakdowns, and key betting angles. Get the edge now before the market moves! 👉 Coral Eclipse 2025 – Stats & Betting Preview
Leave a Reply